CHANCE

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BASIC PROBABILITY AND CHANCE

As an “expert,” you will have to assign subjective probability, best guess,  of occurrence to each outcome.   It may be difficult for you to do this if you have no experience with probabilities.  Some times it helps to see a probability percentage compared to the chance of occurrence, such as:

 

Probability, %

Chance

Example

100.0%

1 in 1

Any sure thing

50.0%

1 in 2

Coin toss

33.3%

1 in 3

Roll a 3 or 6 with a die

25.0%

1 in 4

Pull a heart from a card deck

1.9%

1 in 52

Pull a specific card from a card deck

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Too Many Decisions

 

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